The housing market's bursting bubble has had a dramatic and rippling effect on our economy. That effect has been felt particularly hard in the Las Vegas valley. Nevada, in fact, has the highest foreclosure rate in the country and has been consistently on of the worst unemployment rates in the country.
According to Standard & Poor's report on May 31st, Las Vegas-area home prices fell yet again in March. Prices in March were down 1.1 percent month-to-month and down 5.3 percent annually. According to S&P's reports, Las Vegas-area homes are now at May 1999 levels.
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As a Las Vegas resident it is disheartening to see one "For Sale" or "Foreclosed" sign after another as I drive through my neighborhood. This past week my next door neighbors, a family of four, abruptly left. No goodbye, no nothing. It kind of hurt, but what hurts more is the 30-year-old TV and what appears to be the destroyed parts of a recliner they left in their yard. Just like that, I live next to a junkyard.
It's sad that a family was forced out of their home, but they obviously weren't concerned with how it affected me, their neighbor, so a tear I do not shed. Maybe they weren't facing bankruptcy, maybe they won the lottery and are eating caviar and sipping champagne (probably not), who knows for sure. One thing is for sure, a neighbor abandoning their home and leaving garbage on their yard can't be good for my home value. Though, I rent, so what do I care, right?
Well, maybe I should care. All these empty homes and foreclosures got me thinking. Has the market finally bottomed out? Is now the time to buy? Will the market start to stabilize soon? Can I make the right move for once? Maybe I should do some research and find some answers to these questions...
Among all the depressing economic statistics there are some signs of economic recovery in Las Vegas. For example, Chapter 11 and Chapter 7 personal bankruptcy filings are down 11 percent from January 2010 to January 2011. And according to the 2010 Census, the Las Vegas population has surged to 1.95 million people and averages 6,000 new residents monthly. These residents just aren't in my neighborhood.
You would figure new residents and less bankruptcy in Las Vegas would be good for the housing market. Not according to David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. Blitzer said in a recent statement, "The (national) rebound in prices seen in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to the first-time home buyers tax credit. Excluding the results of that policy, there has been no recovery or even stabilization in home prices during or after the recent recession. Further, while last year saw signs of an economic recovery, the most recent data do not point to renewed gains."
Not everyone agrees with Blitzer's assessment, during a recent webcast market analyst Scott Sambucci said, "Plan for prices over the long term to hit a bottom, rise a bit, sink back down, rise again-a pattern we expect with the housing market for several years...the housing recovery will take a long time and it is going to happen slowly."
Sambucci goes on to say that watching the housing market is like any other asset, there won't be many years of continual growth, but instead, "volatility and finding that inflection point is the opportunity to make money."
Sambucci's take is certainly less depressing than Blitzer's. At least he believes there is still money to be made in the housing market if you're prudent and vigilant. Personally, I'll take Sambucci's assessment over Blitzer's. Not because I have a better understanding of the market than most, but because I'm an optimist. If you're smart, pay attention, pick your spots, and get a little bit lucky you can still buy property in Las Vegas and not end up on the street. I don't know if that's true, but I prefer hope over hopelessness.
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